Bitcoin risk, daily close
Updated daily at about 06:00 UTC
Where today sits
Price and risk
Bitcoin since 2012 with the daily reading. Switch to the heat map to colour the price by the reading.
Cycles
Every cycle from low to low, measured in days since its low. Past cycles in soft colours, the current one in red. The patterns move on by themselves when a new cycle low is confirmed.
Cycles around one dial
Angle is days since the cycle low, distance from the centre is the reading. Diamonds are halvings.
This cycle against past cycles
The shaded area spans the past cycles on the same day after their low.
Cycles in 3D
Every cycle as a ridge, from its low to the next. Drag sideways to turn it, up or down to tilt it and see it from above.
Risk stripes
One stripe per month or week since 2012, coloured by the average reading. Triangles mark the cycle lows.
Indicators
The detail behind today's number.
Risk ranges
Lowest and highest reading in each window. The line is today.
Risk price matrix
The price at which the reading would settle at each level.
Confidence
Band transitions
Where readings in each band were later, since 2012.
Time in each band since 2012
Share of published days in each of the four bands.
Calendar
The same reading, day by day, month by month and candle by candle.
The last 12 months, day by day
Year by month
Hover any cell for its value.
Risk candles
Open, high, low and close of the daily reading in each period.
Go further
Get the score in your inbox
On a schedule, when the reading or the price crosses a level you choose, or with your plan's buy for the period. Free.
Buying strategies
Keep a fixed base amount and a fixed rhythm, and let the reading scale each buy: more when it is low, less or nothing when it is high.
Predefined plans
Each buys in steps, only below 0.50, and is scaled so that since 2014 it spent on average the same as plain DCA. The difference is when the money goes in.
Personalized plans
Draw your own curve. Multipliers can be below 1 at any level. Name it, save it, and use it in the backtest, the simulation and the alerts.
Saved plans
Kept in this browser. Log in to keep them on every device.
Backtest
Replay the published readings on real prices, against plain DCA with the same money.
Dynamic DCA against plain DCA
A generic dynamic plan, as the site has always shown it: buy only when the reading is below 0.30, five times the weight below 0.10, four below 0.20 and three below 0.30, scaled so the total equals plain DCA's.
Backtest a plan
Pick a predefined plan or one you saved.
Every start date
The same plan over every four year window since 2014, so the result does not hang on one lucky start.
Forward simulation
Five macro scenarios for the next decade. Bitcoin's long run price has followed shrinking four year cycles. Run a live simulation of any scenario, then follow one path to see how the reading and your plan would behave.
How it works: Methodology
This site is built by engineers with a research background both in academia and industry (and additionally, hardcore bitcoiners). As students and practitioners of the scientific method, we won’t ask you to trust us on behalf of a “competitive edge” or “intellectual property” that hampers cutting edge innovation. That is a leap of faith, not truth seeking science.
We see Bitcoin as the culmination of decades of research in economics, software engineering and cryptography, aspiring to replace fiat money. Believing in Bitcoin involves lowering your time preference, planning for the future, and the superiority of a predictable mathematical protocol over vague political promises. We also strongly oppose the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which states that asset prices reflect all available information. Financial markets, and especially crypto, are irrational by design and move in massive waves of panic and euphoria. While volatility in Bitcoin may be diminishing as its market cap grows, it is still far above that of other refuges from money debasement, such as gold.
The risk algorithm presented here reflects this perspective. It is not a trading signal, a sentiment index, or a selling calendar. It is a guide for long term DCA: more of your money goes in when Bitcoin is less extended against its own history, which over long horizons has meant more bitcoin per dollar. We aim for the best, most robust, most efficient, and most comprehensive possible risk algorithm. That is only attainable through running a fully transparent, verifiable, reproducible, and criticizable system. Furthermore, our goal is to provide guidance and optimize DCA, not to integrate every possible risk indicator there is. Most of these are redundant, too sensitive to panic or euphoria, and would impair weighted purchases.
You can examine it yourself here and test its results with the backtest and forward simulation sections, and even optimize your personalized strategy. We run on public, permissionless, verifiable, predictable, and extremely efficient code. There is no second best. Same as with Bitcoin ;)
How today's number was computed
Today's real values, from public inputs to the published reading.
Questions
Short answers to what people ask most.
Support this project
The score, the charts and the alerts are free, with no ads. If the site helps you, you can help keep it running.
One time donations. Secure payments. No hidden fees.
Help sharpen the risk metric
The method is public so it can be audited, and corrections are welcome. If you see a flaw in the maths, a better input or a period where the reading behaves badly, tell us in detail. Every message is read.